I have found myself in recent weeks saying that the corner of this crisis has turned. What makes me say that? First were the fireworks at New Year. They were everywhere and continued filling the sky with colour and sparkle for an hour or more. The amount was really staggering. No country in crisis could waste so much money. It shows that some spare money is coming back. The traffic is also back up to prosperity levels and the driving is almost as bad as it was before - not much petrol saving here! And in the main streets now virtually all shops are being used. There are still some blank stares but the numbers are few. Rents are clearly becoming realistic. The shops are generally more active. But a word of caution.
Not everyone shares in this change. There are still many beggars and destitute walking the streets. Property experts try to say that flat prices are going up but the truth is that the average price is, but this is because there are now many of the expensive flats for open sale and hire that for two years were simply not offered. And the banks are apparently more willing to loan for house purchase again. But I suspect that the bargains have mainly gone - for now that is. I am sure that there will be reductions for another 6 months as there are still people with bank loans hanging over them.
But a radical and possibly unpopular thought. I feel that for the long term, this crisis has possibly not been deep enough for the country to understand how to do business in the world. Today I went into a shop to browse for some trousers. I did not have time to buy today. As I started to leave the two surly looking shop attendants talking to themselves at the back of the shop scowled even deeper and one of them muttered something and glared at me directly- without any self consciousness about their rudeness. I think I will not be going back. I spent a few days in Dusseldorf recently and the level of service was just so much higher than Riga everywhere we went. Shop assistants were positively wonderful. If things become better here quickly then I fear a return to the awful pre-crisis service. And the shops in Riga are still asking stupid prices for things with the winter and spring stock. Clothes prices here are more in Lats than they were in Dusseldorf in Euros (for exactly the same items)
But like it or not, we have what we have. Let us hope that this government holds long enough to continue the stability. The refusal by the Prime Minister of the hamfisted and blatantly political structural and work changes wanted by the Head of the Anti Corruption Bureau is at least a good start. But reform still has to be started. Education and Health need some hard thinking and new systems. They simply do not work. If visiting a doctor and getting the medicine can cost 50 Euros or more for a visit, that is a system failing everyone except itself.
The big activity this year will be the selection of a new President or the reselection of President Zattlers. After an awful start he has settled down to not doing a bad job at all. He is showing more astuteness and confidence each outing and his surgeons intelligence that he hid for so long is now being used to the full. He will be a hard person to better this time around.
