Sunday, October 17, 2010

Stockmans sale - hope or dispair?

The huge numbers shopping in the "madness days" sale in Stockmans this last few days tell a tale. What that tale is though is unclear. On one hand it may be a sign that the recent election has brought hope of a recovery. Certainly the idea that a Dombrovskis-led coalition of virtually the whole Parliament, including the minority speakers is unusual, outside of Finland that is - where it is normal (and very successful) business. But apart from this step into the political unknown, it is hard to find evidence of solid improvement. More on this later.

Of course the sale may just have been a welcome relief from the rather bleak couple of years that many have suffered. Sadly another hard winter looks to be on the cards for many with heating bills likely to just as bad again. Coming back regularly from Bulgaria that is in much the same state, I see many similarities with excessively large cars living side by side with beggars. But there I have seen many horses and carts on the roads, they seem to have disappeared here!

But has Riga started to show signs of improvement? The signs here are mixed. But I do feel that there has been no more general downward movement over the summer. Flat prices for rent and sale continue to fall steadily despite the bizarre "talking up" of the real estate companies trying to get investors onto the hook. The number of beggars and visible alcoholics is growing slowly but steadily - sadly too many of them are dying young and unnamed as the monthly newspaper reports show. Shops are still closing regularly but Latvia is showing amazing robustness in this regard as new shops, bars, clubs and cafes seem to open immediately. Only a few places seem to stay stubbornly closed, and I suspect that the owners are simply asking too much rent.

Sadly "service" still sucks in Riga and is a common comment from tourists. Typically, museums close when people want to visit - as I found to my cost when my mother and sister came recently. It is also noticeable that shop prices have started to creep up again. This is foolishness as those who charge too much will be penalised by the public. One clothes shop I frequent was expensive two years ago but has managed to gather a great collection of clothes at modest prices and kept the look and feel of an expensive store. Their service is great too. It can be done. But I went to the chemists at Riga airport last week and the girl was seriously rude and offhand. It is so simple to be polite and helpful - it brings customers back. She clearly thought I was a tourist so it doesn't matter! Her mistake. Now she is immortalised as being rude in print.

But there has to be some change if we are going to make headway. Last year along with my business colleague Bill from UK we worked with the Ministry of Economy at Under Secretary level to help them understand how to use the European funds to create transformation using LEAN business processes. We wrote presented and ran seminars. We helped them produce a plan and helped them with the bill for Parliament. But at every stage they watered down the proposals so that responsibility would be transferred to LIAA and the associations and no one in the Ministry would have to do any work. We told them directly in print that their plan was wrong and would fail. Simply, LIAA and the Associations did not have the experience or capacity to do this work The measures were accepted by cabinet and two weeks ago the head of the Investment Agency LIAA Andris Ozols told me directly that the plan had failed and the money (a huge amount) had been lost with no effect. Last week I saw that the Associations had written to the PM for him to do something. They have short memories. I offered to help them for nothing and they refused. They deserve to fail. Reality has to be accepted sooner or later. The level of manufacturing and organisational knowledge here is low and will only be improved by purchasing skilled foreign help.

This week I am running a business forum in Riga (details on my website
www.latvia-business.com). What has amazed me is the number of my contacts who have changed jobs or their companies no longer exist. At least 60% of my business cards are now out of date and few of them are more than 2 years old. Many of the people are now abroad. It reflects a huge national change. We shall see in the coming months if this is change for the better.