Urine Soaked Trousers

I was on the number 40 bus yesterday. An old man got on and using his walking stick stumbled along to the seat adjacent to me. He had visibly urine soaked trousers and the stench was truly awful. I am not proud of my immediate thoughts because they were not charitable. On looking more closely I could see that he was really well dressed with a good jacket, shirt and tie and he clearly had the mark of intelligence about him. No one wants to be like that. Certainly no one who takes the effort to put on a tie before they go out! He must have prostrate problems and the embarrassment for him of being like that must be awful, especially in a country like this where to be sick means to pay money, and in most cases money you simply do not have. But he was clearly still proud. I found it quite hard.

The IMF have told Latvia they must reform the medical system. But this is not good enough. The IMF needs to define the word reform in great detail (it is not understood here. Most politicians think it means cuts not service improvement!), they need to spell out in great detail what they mean and want and then they need to pay for and send experts to make sure that it happens. This man needs help, but I see absolutely no chance that anything that Latvia does in the coming months called ''health reform'' is going to deliver it.

The rumours are beginning to grow that one or two serious companies in Latvia may go under in the next month or so. As I try to find shops for my new shopping complex in Adazi I am seeing clearly that the screws are turning tighter. It is proving hard to convince firms to expand now, although it is certainly a good time as they can screw really great terms out of the market. It will be much harder later. Another growing rumour is that the Government is considering dropping the VAT rate. Even if they do, it will only be effective if they also do some serious confidence boosting measures.

My highlight of the week was chairing an IT security conference for the Latvian subsidiary of headtechnology from Germany. We had great day with good speakers from UK, Luxembourg, Israel and Germany and loads of new things to think about. I enjoyed the enthusiasm of the attendees and the quality of questions. Clearly the IT sector in Latvia has some very bright boys and girls in it. I enjoyed dinner too. Thank you Andris.

Museum Night

Last night was museum night in Riga. Thousands turned out to go round the museums free and see new exhibitions, shows and music. Town was full, although perhaps not as much as last year. It was ironic in these times of rapidly growing unemployment that when I came in to town on the tram, the Work Museum had a 75m long queue and when I left at midnight the queue was still at least 50m of dads, mums and kids.

But leaving was interesting. the trams ran as normal. Again this shows the total lack of linkage between government and people. There were hundreds of people waiting for trams and buses and then showing their disbelief and anger that the service was finished. My last tram only went to the depot at Brivibas Iela and then I had to walk the last 5km home. On the tram a Russian speaker went up to the driver and tried to highjack the tram and get the lady driver to take it right to the end of the line at Jugla. His initial verbal force got him a slammed cabin door for his efforts and a sharp ''get away'' in Latvian. Then he changed to soft pleas and offerings with full actions and facial movements. The passengers were in fits of laughter and really egging him on. It was wonderful comedy theatre. When I got off he was walking unsteadily up the road arm in arm with a lady, the two of them laughing fit to burst in drunken happiness.

I saw my pickpocket again on Friday on the number 6 tram. He got on totally stoned and when I looked round he had slumped sitting to the floor at the back and looked completely dead to the world. Next time I looked he had gone. At least in this state he is not going to be effective.

Saw some Chinese visitors this week in the Old Town. Most of them were walking around with face masks. It really did look daft. Were they after protection from us from Swine Flu or were they protecting us? Sadly my Chinese was not up to asking.

I went Orienteering Saturday to Riga's Championships. Not a bad result for me - about half way up my age group. Got lost a bit too many times though. Interestingly the biggest groups were the 10 years old boys on the mens side and the 16 year old girls on the womens. So no complaints about lazy youth and the computer era in this sport. There were also 6 ladies over 80 running too. On that wonderful note I shall end.

50% Off.................

Now I see a trend. It is clear from the last weeks that a sign in the shop window of 50% off is the first signs of the death knell of the company. Main streets in the centre like Terbatus Iela and K Barona are riddled with these, even Benetton is sporting 50% signs. A few weeks ago this meant the finals stages of clear out of the winter gear but now that is no longer true. We are now talking about massive reductions on the summer stuff. Some shop staff are actually noticing customers now too. Not most sadly, they carry on talking to each other or reading as they have always done.

What I first thought was strange was that many of the shops selling outdated fashions are still there and only showing 25-30% reduction signs. But then I realised that's because they have long term brand loyalty, some even from Soviet times, much cheaper prices overall and fashions that are still OK to wear for the older generation. Benetton and Nike may be flashy and beautiful but the majority of the population could never be seen dead in their stuff. It is simply too bright and garish. And the younger population (those not in Ireland or UK) no longer have the same spending power to waste. Mind some shops amaze me still. The hammock shop (yes I did write hammock) still seems to be going strong depite me never having seen a customer there. the same for the sports bar on K Barona that is nearly always empty. Someone said they do lunches. Not sure when though. Must be at four in the morning! And the eternally empty gaming bars continue their money laundering ways. What is unclear now is where the money to launder is coming from. Not Russia surely?

So the high street is struggling. What next? The rent prices for flats are dropping but are still high, and real estate sales prices are so high they are bizarre. One of the banks selling houses in its window has a picture of a concrete shack about 100km from Riga at 140,000Lvl. That's almost sick in its stupidity. Its not worth 15,000 in any money.

And the news from my friends running small companies continues to depress. Many, if not all have cash flow problems (and when I went to business school and we did wonderful cash flow charts, no-one talked about what to do if the clients simply cannot or do not pay). I know of one company where the staff are working for virtually no money, just to go to work. Ho hum.

But the former transport minister Slessors talks of creating 50,000 jobs in Riga in his highly financed and very public bid to become City Mayor (that's 3000 more than the official and much disbelieved current unemployed figure for Riga). Who is going to employ and pay these people I wonder? Half his old plans have stalled in the crisis and I am sure that more will yet. I wish him luck in his new country of Fairyland.

Sunny day

Just been for a run in the forest here in Riga. The weather is beautiful and the park looks lovely. I just wish we could get rid of a bit more rubbish. This must be one of the nicest City places to run in Northern Europe along with Central Park in Helsinki, the hillside park in Prague and Lidingo in Stockholm.

LATVIAN GOVERNMENT OUT OF TOUCH STILL

I have been quiet for a while but just watching and listening. On the surface there is still little visible change from 5 or 6 weeks ago. But I am hearing increasing dissatisfaction from people that the Government has not understood the nature of the crisis or the steps needed to deliver change. We are about to see massive redundancies in the education system and probably in health as well. These are being trumpeted as reform. In fact they are nothing of the sort, they are just cuts plain and simple. Where is the urgency?????

But reducing the governments load upon society has got to be only part of the solution. The other part is to make things better - and that is simply not happening. Serious players like Diena's Business magazine have conducted polls, brought in businessmen for seminars and training and other things. They have laid down clearly what is needed but to no avail. It is like talking to a brick wall. All the problem areas of trying to do business in the country remain and there is no support.

So the downward trend continues and with no repair in sight. The President just dithers and the Government sits smugly, talking reform and thinking that there are mathematical solutions for all this. There are not. This is about people.

The workmen have been hard at work improving the local forest and making it more like a ''park''. Call me a cynic if you like but does the fact that the local elections are close have anything to do with this sudden burst of activity. Well even so, it is nice to see some tidiness appear and a few well placed park benches, ideally placed of course for the huge numbers of unemployed alkies to sit on. Its a pity we never see police here though. Last night I ran past one 30 year old totally comatose sitting in the middle of the track about 50m from a block of flats where young children were playing. Every day a group of older drinkers gather near there in the morning and just get totally drunk. At least they appear harmless, but it still must feel threatening for many women and children.

The motor show in Kipsala yesterday was good. The first show I have been to here that looked and felt right. But it was still thin on the ground in some areas. I would say it was rescued by Renault - so well done to them.