|ARNOLDS' CHRISTMAS

Arnolds got no pay this month. He is a neighbour and works as a security guard in what used to be a Soviet collective farm. It is now a collection of small businesses. So Arnolds and family had no money for Christmas. I suspect that there are lots more Arnolds around in Latvia. There was a definite tightening of belts showing in the shops before Christmas as festive staples like bread, peppercake biscuits and tangarines sold out quickly but alcohol (except to my eyes, vodka) was left on the shelves. It will be interesting to read the businss reviews in January

Well it has been a white Christmas in Latvia and I managed to get out on my cross country skis this afternoon for 40 mins. My shoulders and arms ached afterwards. It is too long since I last had a proper ski. The temperature was perfect at minus 2 degrees but the snow was like sugar on a bed of ice so getting the right wax in a hurry was nearly impossible. I made do this time just to not spend too much time in the cold trying out every possible combination in my wax box.

Getting out in the fresh air was a relief from the soppy american christmas films on show on the television. USA makes the greatest films in the world, but they also make the worst. Not much more to say really!!

Happy Christmas everyone!

LATVIA FOR SALE

This morning a friend of mine in Riga asked me to help him sell some land in the centre of the city. This is adds to the growing amount of real estate I have been asked to help sell in the last couple of months. As usual the fact that I have worked in the British Embassy in Riga and therefore must know lots of rich people says more about a lack of understanding of UK diplomacy and the diplomatic world in general than anything to do with selling land. But diplomacy and the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office is another story for another day.

Back to land and property. At the moment I have been asked to sell or market: a prosperous potato farm, a mixed dairy and arable farm (both of which I visited recently and got my shoes dirty), 600- hectares of arable land in the rich agricultural area in the South of Latvia and an old manor house badly in need of repair also with 400 plus hectares of land further west. In the centre of Riga I have been offered 5 plus hectares near the centre and a a further 3 hectares upriver near the new South bridge, both apparently with planning permission. All in all, a feast of property and land but in todays market seemingly as much use to potential investors as trying to sell used candles.

One colleague suggested that I should go to the bank and get enough money to buy the land myself. I admit that this is a mouth watering suggestion as in my weaker moments I quite fancy the life of a gentleman farmer, lord of the manor type. Then reality sets in and I have to admit to myself that the only experience I have of farming and the agriculture business is running cross country over ploughed fields in winter and eating root vegetables at Christmas. Cows frighten me - they are so heavy and uncontrollable.

So there we have it, lots of wonderful land for sale but no more rich Russians flush with folding money wanting a quiet bolt hole out of the homeland but still inside the former Soviet Union and speaking the same lingo.

Things will inevitably change for my friends, the only answer is, will they sell before they owe so much the banks have to take it all. I would be interested to see how good the managers of Parex and SEB bank are at milking cows!

PRISON CELLS - FOR CRIME OR FREE SPEECH?

The arrest and detention for two days of Ventspils University College lecturer Dmitrijs Smirnov has amazing similarities with the arrest and searching of the private office of UK opposition Member of Parliament Damian Green. Both are claiming the right to free speech and to say things about the way their country works. There the similarity sadly ends. The arrest of MP Green will be debated in the Houses of Parliament and it looks likely that someone will be made to walk for the offence. High on the list is the Speaker of the House who let the police into Parliament without a search warrant. But the Home secretary might go as well as she claims she knew nothing about the case. Arresting an MP is so serious that if she did not know, she is certainly liable to be deemed incompetent, even by her own party.



Dmitrijs does not look so well supported. In fact none seems to care about his plight at all. He is already cowed by his two days in prison and vowing to watch his tongue in future. Should he have to? Latvia is supposedly a free democracy within the European Union and it is not clear yet what law he has actually broken. He stands to make no monetary gain from his actions and was just saying what he felt was right in the circumstances. People talk down the dollar in the USA every day and good luck to them. But the arguments about the moral aspects of his - crime? - are finely balanced. On one hand it could be argued that he has a duty to his country to ensure that the value of the currency is not influenced by his actions, but on the other, if he rightly believes that there is a real crisis, then he has a strong moral duty to say so to protect the livelihoods of his fellow citizens. What is clear is that he has no duty at all to protect an inefficient government of the day. And it looks increasingly if the police acted on behalf of a government institution rather than on behalf of the law. It could be argued that this means they have become an arm of the executive - just like in a police state. This is very difficult political ground and really the Saeima should debate this case carefully. What crime comes next if this crime is upheld?



But there are other worrying aspects. To arrest someone and then deprive them of their freedom for so long is highly serious. There must always be strong reasons for doing this. The primary reason for holding someone in custody is that the person is a physical danger to his fellow citizens. You could also rightly hold him if he would tamper with evidence or threaten witnesses, or in the case of a serious crime, do it again. But none of these reasons are even remotely likely in either of these cases. There is no reason to arrest someone where there is no violence or high value theft involved, and certainly not hold them in gaol just for speaking freely. This is not a hate crime and is certainly not high treason and we are not at war. And holding someone against their will for 2 days without a seriously good reason is kidnap and that is certainly against the law.



In both these cases the police acted with a heavy hand and quite likely exceeded their powers. They are most guilty of the sad crime of getting things out of proportion. But if we are straying into the minefield where politics rules police actions rather than the law, then police actions like this can be understood, even if not agreed with. Perhaps future ministers can try to reshape public policy on behalf of citizens not ministers. The saddest thing is that the vast majority of police I have met here in Latvia have been super and this is not at all a natural way for them to behave. (I stayed with one earlier in the year so that is not just talk) But sadly it says something about the state of the country at the moment that this could happen.



In reality both men could have been phoned and asked to appear at a police station at a convenient time to explain their actions - and would certainly have done so. Neither would have run away that's for certain - where would they go, sail to Sweden? Gaol was also totally unnecessary for Dmitrijs and at best a gross waste of police time and money, not to mention the distress it caused him and his family. Two days of his life lost, and Latvian finances are no better for it.



The Government of Latvia does have serious financial problems but adding to them by encouraging police use their powers to bully citizens who are saying publicly what thousands are saying in private is not a clever political move. It sends the wrong signals to the population about the rule of law and says little good about the government and the country to the rest of Europe. And in truth, anyone who saw the Atis Slakteris interview on Bloomberg television could only have sympathy with the views of Dmitrijs. I have worked with Minister Slakteris and think he is a good and honourable man, but he was clearly totally out of his depth talking about Latvian Fiscal policy.



If it helps the police, I shall not be taking my money out of Swedbank, except to eat and drink it, and if it still has any value, buy some Christmas presents. I shall not encourage anyone else to do so either. But if the Latvian Government devalues the Lat which they say loudly every day they will not, I shall probably use some of my pocket money from UK to buy PAREX bank. I quite fancy my own bank!



Continuing on the theme of Prisons. US civil rights lawyer Prof Brian Stevenson has told the UK government not to make the same mistake as the USA by building huge TITAN prisons. The UK government says they are going ahead and that these prisons will provide value for money. The professor says that the evidence shows that smaller prisons work to reduce re-offending because at least in them you can give someone hope. I totally agree. As a former Prison Governor I heartedly endorse the rule that 500 inmates is the absolute maximum because this is the largest size that the head of the establishment can know everyone inside and maintain a moral hold on them. Any larger is totally offensive, even for the staff. I trust that the Latvian Government has also read this news and will think hard about the size of future Latvian prisons. Big is not beautiful in this case.

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IS LATVIA IN BIG TROUBLE?

Last week a university lecturer in Latvia was arrested by the police for talking down the economy. Speaking your mind is still not a free sport in this democracy. I can quite accept this if is he intended to benefit financially by his actions but it looks as though he merely felt he had to tell his version of the truth. Still there are more twists and turns in this country than a formula one circuit, so it would not surprise me if he does not turn out to be the brother in law of the head of the stock exchange or something. But it is a warning that I must not say anything naughty in my Blogs about the Lat.



My friend was made unemployed last week. She went to the unemployment office yesterday. Apparently the Government has removed 2.5million Lats from the budget of that organisation so they had fired some of their staff. There were not enough people there to process those applying and the awful rumour went around that there would not even be enough money to pay the legal payments. Now that would be interesting. It must be a strange feeling losing your job and then queuing to ask a former colleague for money.


The Government has gone cap in hand to the EU for a figure reportedly to be about 5Bn Euro (although one rumour says 13Bn). That would be half the GDP for this year. It is probably needed but it is hard to see how it can be paid back in a hurry. But it makes Gordon Browns efforts in UK seem cheap by comparison. That much money would be a lot more to waste on expensive and inefficient latvian government building projects.


Another friend of mine got the sack this morning. He was quite good at his job but the company are restructuring - that is Latvian for sacking people to save money - and he just happened to draw the short straw. At 28 he is mortified that his previously upward career has suddenly taken a sharp downward move. But he is sharp enough to move on quickly. Many of those I interview for work are Post Soviet followers by training and inclination and simply without any initiative. I am trying to find a shop manager with drive and it is like looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack

Other evidence of recession is still hard to guage. In many of the shops, the lonely shopgirl stands alone waiting for the weekly customer, but this was always so in Riga. Most shops simply charge far too much for their goods and the items are just not worth it. Better to fly Ryanair to UK and shop in Bishops Stortford. In one of the expensive shops on saturday there were still plenty of active and rich looking women. But this may just be them shopping hard before husband says - enough Olga, we are poor too now too. Our driver is poor, our maid is poor etc etc. In the supermarkets the shopping baskets are still full and there seems little inclination to cut family costs. Many people are still eating out at lunchtime. I watch carefully for signs of change in Chilli Pizza .

I have had a welcoming amount of comments about my previous Blog and without exception they have been supportive about my stand for the law to apply fairly and evenly. We shall see if it ever causes change. Somehow I doubt it will happen soon.

Anyway, off to edit an article on Latvia - Russia relations for Artis Pabriks former Foreign Minister. Then I must do some paying work.....

DANGEROUS DRIVING, THE LAW, AND THE PRESIDENT

Of the five worst examples of dangerous driving I have ever seen, two were in Italy. The first was on a mountain road near the Brenner pass into Austria in the early 80s. I was heading to a ski camp in Antholz. A fiat overtook me on a sharp blind corner going far too fast. About 5 km later I was not at all surprised to see the car in a snowy field where the driver had steered it off the road rather than crash into an oncoming lorry. The driver was standing by the car clearly shaken but unhurt. He was lucky.

The second incident was on the Bologna - Padova motorway when I was coming back from an evening at the Jazz club in Bologna. (totally sober I might add) I drove into the inevitable thick mist that every autumn and winter covers the flat plain 30km either side of the river Po. The visibility was about 15m so I slowed down and drove very very carefully. Suddenly a container lorry passed me in the outside lane driving at least 100km an hour. It was going so fast the trailer was swaying dangerously behind it and it forced me to swerve hard onto the hard shoulder. I was seriously shaken and almost missed the Ferarra turnoff a few minutes later. I was grateful to get home alive that night.

The other five dangerous examples have all been in Riga and concern the police escort drivers. At least two of these have been with the President and a third I was not sure because they were going so fast it was impossible to see who the cars were carrying. I have watched cars swerve away out of their lanes to escape the aggressive attack, and people jump back onto the pavement in fear. Sooner or later these police will kill someone who cannot get across a crossing fast enough when they jump the red lights. It is inevitable. It will be a mother with pram or someone disabled who simply cannot move away.

There are many facets to this. The first is that dangerous driving is against the law and these police should be prosecuted like anyone else. The second is that they appear to believe that breaking the law is alright for them but not for others. Why do the traffic police not stop and arrest them for example? Are they given orders by senior police not to do so. If so the senior police should resign and go and farm somewhere. They are not doing their job.

The third thing is that by convention, the senior person in a car or in a cavalcade is the person responsible for the way that the cars are driven. This places the responsibility firmly upon the head of the President. Why does he allow this dangerous practice day after day? We are not in Belgrade or any high risk security area. If there is a death then who will be guilty of manslaughter, the driver or the President? Cars when driven aggressively are a weapon and should be considered as such by law.

John Adams, the second president of the United States was fond of saying that he wanted a country that was ruled by law and not by men. We need that too in Latvia. This means that Presidents and police should also abide by the law. If they do not, then what point is there having any law at all?

LATVIAS BUDGET - AND BASKETBALL

It is perhaps ironic that on one of the most important weekends in Latvian history, the newspapers carry more about basketball than the crucial budget readings. But that is Latvia for you. The list of budget winners and losers is as expected. Teachers keep their pay level, firefighters will lose some posts. The workers who cleaned up Chernobyl get a small increase. Considering the small numbers and the huge service they did for the world they might have got more.

The police will also be cut but this is vital if they are to become a healthy western facing force. They are hugely overmanned and still operate like the police in some minor South American state of 50 years ago. They are only happy serving VIPs. The first sign of any minor dignitary and they bully and abuse the public and also break the law by driving dangerously with impunity. A few prosecutions would not be out of order. The Presidents cavalcade is the worst.

But back to the budget. The key thing is that the figures only show the top of the iceberg. What is not shown is all the nonsenses that our money is spent upon. Basketball gets money from at least three ministries and employs some 12 people or more. I accept that major sports that cannot attract private funds should get Government support. The country should probably pay for a national coach and a couple of administrators, but not more. Basketball gets private money. It should get no government funding at all.

At least the Government got something right by stealing Gatis Kokins from the main opposition Party the SCP to bring stability to Parex bank. We wish him well and lets hope that Latvia has enough money to support basketball instead of proper business and public services in another 90 years time.

Recession and some early thoughts?

It is not clear yet if full recession has come to Latvia, if it will come, or even if anyone takes it seriously. The evidence is mixed. I went to Alpha Rimi last monday and the carpark was full at 12 Oclock. All the seats in a coffee house were taken and people were clearly spending money. One of my clients reports that his firm is doing better than ever. But on the other hand, two firms I am doing work for have reported a serious drop off in income. My observation is that much of the success and failure I am seeing is to do with the variable quality of performance of the workforce as market conditions start to bite. Many people are just not good enough at their job.

Two weeks ago I took a spin around a big furniture shop and then across the road to a car showroom. I was well dressed so in both stores they could have fairly assumed that I was a buyer. No-one aproached me at all to ask if I was interested in anything. The look of indifference upon the faces of the shop assistants was remarkable. They simply did not care.

Well you may ask why do you write about this in a people blog. Well for two reasons. This is a management problem in two parts. It is clear that there are either firstly not good enough guidelines for the staff or secondly that the staff have not been trained properly. 5 years ago in Latvia it would have been fine just to let the product sell itself. Now that is not enough. 5 years ago firms could work by letting the boss make all the decisions like some latter day Tsar. That is now not good enough either As the money flow tightens, the quality of the management and the performance of the staff are now going to become deciding factors. Training is still seen as an extra in Latvia. It will soon become vital. Like a football team, when the centre forward gets the ball, you need him to shoot at goal immmediately, not be taught how to do it then or wait to ask the manager for permission. Things must change in Latvia as far as selecting and training people are concerned.

First Blog - A sad thing.

The saddest thing I have seen in the last few weeks was a television clip of a man who had just been made redundant in Latvia. He was howling in agony. The pain was clear to see. I am sure that his was not an isolated case and if the recession grows, is going to happen again and again. I hope that companies will spare some thought towards trying to help people relocate, give them good reference letters or at least let them go with dignity. A point to remember always is that those you pass on the way up, may pass you later on the way down.