IS IT ALL AN ILLUSION?

I have been working on some Telecoms stuff for Ukraine all this week. I suspect the chances of turning it into folding money are slim but the opportunity is too good to waste. But whilst doing my research on Ukraine I read a comment that despite the terrible troubles with the Government and the growing poverty, the outdoor street cafes and downtown life of Kiev are going on as if all was rosy.

I had the same feeling yesterday afternoon as I walked through Old Riga. The sun was shining, the outdoor cafes were full, young boys on roller blades were being annoying and very tall Latvian girls (6 foot 3 or more) were walking around with short skirts and high heels talking 10 to the dozen and totally unnoticed by all except us foreigners. There was simply no sign of crisis at all. But at lunchtime I was celebrating a Names Day with my friend Visvaldis and he said that his company could last no more than three months. I know the feeling! My publishing client from last week is not going to last a month I suspect, and has still not paid me, and whats worse, one serious client company emailed me this week to say that I would have to wait another month for payment. All my book learning and cash flow projections go out of the window at times like this. So thank you Matthew in Athletics Weekly for your speedy contribution for my writing.

But if this normality that we have been seeing these past months is really an illusion and not real then why are the government apparently doing so little. The plans that are coming out show no urgency, or desire to make serious changes. I went to a Latvian school recently to a friends daughters parents day and the headmistress said that she had had to make no cuts at all. She was totally unconcerned about it all and it showed. There is much political talk of reform on television every day but if anything is happening, nothing is evident. The police still patrol in threes and fours carrying briefcases and bags, wearing inappropriate shoes and talking to each other as if the world around them is not there.

Perhaps I have got it wrong and I am an illusion and not really there? No that's not true, the tram and bus inspectors keep checking me - so they can see me all right.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM

President Zattlers has gone on record now saying that he thinks people do not trust him. Well no one that I speak to thinks of him as anything other than a puppet of the ruling Tautas Party. They have now dropped in the polls to a little over 2%. If I recall rightly, this is even less than Mugabe gets in Zimbabwe and that must be saying something. At least unlike that unhappy country, we do not seem yet to be on the way to a million Lat note to buy a pack of chewing gum. In my local food shop prices this week have actually dropped for staples like milk and Cadburies fruit and nut chocolate, and supermarket chain Rimi are price busting hard by bringing in their own brands for coffee and cereals. The coffee was half the price of other brands. I just wish they were running the heating company for Riga. Heating prices are absurd and getting worse.

Whilst people watching this week, it is clear that we are becoming a nation of haves and have nots. The haves are still spending like there is no future. In the Spy Bar (which was full) on Thursday, students were happily drinking beer at 2 lats 50 a litre and did not seem as worried as I was about the prices. And the cafes are still full of people eating out. But the real cuts have not yet come. The government have announced that the public kindergartens will close for a month in July. That will have an immediate effect on the pockets of many families - or there will be a lot of grandmas on childminding duty.

My feeling now is that we will have another month or two at this stage of the recession. Then the high level of unemployment payments will drop dramatically and the national money flow will reduce. It will take two months or so for this to have an adverse effect on small companies and then another round of redundancies will start. June and July are the test months. If we get lots of tourists we might survive, but if not then I predict that the number of "for sale" and "for rent'' signs will climb dramatically.

REZEKNE JAM

After my comments about the awfulness of Latvian radio two yesterday, which by the way, is in no comparison to the awfulness of Suffolk radio, I went to the spy bar in Old Riga yesterday evening to listen to a group of youngsters from Rezekne playing Latgalian music. It was really magical stuff. The youngsters play a combination of violins, bagpipes, accordions and drums and they sang really haunting Latvian, Russian and particularly Latgalian melodies. The sounds and harmonies were amazing and totally different from anything I have heard before. They play every Thursday and I shall be going there again..