The Latvian Government 2010 budget has been passed by Parliament. It contains many unpleasant tax rises. As you would expect, most of these are being blamed by politicians on the unreasonable demands of the IMF. The IMF team are in town for talks and they are clearly unhappy Bunnies. The key reason is that the budget is a fudge. The Government was supposed to cut 500m off their huge running costs but have wimped and only cut about 350m. This means that the other 150 has to come in tax rises, and this from a national tax base that is shrinking rapidly. Even with this extra blood money, there will still be a 600m shortfall (about 8% GDP I think that is) and of course the money for this has to come from somewhere too. In comes the IMF and EU with their duffel bags of dosh.
On the daily news, the budget sounds as though it balances and quite likely on the surface citizens will think that if the IMF accepts it this it is OK. And if you accept that it is right to run a huge deficit each year then it does appear on paper to balance. The figures technically look as though they work. But that deficit will not go away after the budget and nor will the public suddenly find more money to spend.
The IMF team is between a rock and a hard place. The Government knows this and is playing on it. If the IMF accept this weak and rotten budget they will be blamed when it fails (and it probably will unless God has told Finance Minister Repse something he has not told the rest of us). If they reject it ( and of course they actually have no legal power to do that), it would have to go back to Government and the Parliament again and the Government will fall - In that case a new budget from, for example the Peoples Party, would just give away pre election money in a wave of corrupt populism to win the elections next year. So bad though this budget is, it may be the best of the worst.
And if the IMF withhold their loan (not free gift remember), they will be seen as evil Americans (of which most of them are not of course) and the country could implode socially for lack of ability to pay pensions and unemployment money. And unpaid and hungry Russians suddenly becomes a security issue not to be played with at any cost. And of course there will be no magic money in the next 12 months from a sudden improvement in business, so the overlarge government structure, and the debts from this year will carry over to next and still have to be paid somehow. How this is to be done is of course never discussed.
In recent weeks I have been amazed by the stoicism of the Latvian nation. I knew that they had endured much before under the Soviets but now I can see this character trait in its full glory. But this Government (and those of Kalvitis and Godmanis) has also destroyed any basis for national honesty and decency by unfair tax policies, refusal to accept responsibility for their actions, and by the self seeking way most Parliament members behave and vote. Avoiding paying, and living outside of the rules is growing as a national sport(typically not paying for public transport), and this is very very sad.
What is clear to me is that like Italy in the 70s the country is beginning to work and exist totally independent of authority. Many people I talk to just want to leave, and leave quickly because they simply have no appetite for the fight. I am glad that I joined the SCP. They have stuck to their principles throughout all this, and I have been proud of the way many of the younger members have grown into fine politicians. Our day is probably not yet, but it will come.
What to do now though?
Showing posts with label Godmanis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Godmanis. Show all posts
Friday, December 4, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
SLOW SLIDE DOWNHILL CONTINUES
The slide downhill continues. Prime Minister Godmanis has left the government and the bargaining has begun, still without the Russian party of course. They will be in the government because they have too many seats not to be, but unlike America which has now officially embraced minorities, the idea of the Russian speakers being in control was too much for president Zattlers who even refused to see their candidate. But it will be interesting to see as the financial pips squeek how many of the anti Russian policies last. Not many is my guess.
Shops continue to close, especially in the expensive areas near the centre. When I told my sister about this, she said quickly "just like Swansea then!". So perhaps my trip last weekend to Surrey which still looks as prosperous as ever should have been to Wales to look at things there.
There is a bit of a fightback though. Tomorrow there will be a mass networking event for 2000 Latvian business leaders in Arena Riga. Apparently the President will attend as will VVF the last President. I shall go - and report back.
Shops continue to close, especially in the expensive areas near the centre. When I told my sister about this, she said quickly "just like Swansea then!". So perhaps my trip last weekend to Surrey which still looks as prosperous as ever should have been to Wales to look at things there.
There is a bit of a fightback though. Tomorrow there will be a mass networking event for 2000 Latvian business leaders in Arena Riga. Apparently the President will attend as will VVF the last President. I shall go - and report back.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
A riot - but mind the town square cleaners!
Last night in Riga we had a riot. Well it was not exactly a real riot, I know because I have been on the wrong end of these in Northern Ireland when I served there. This was something else again.
The evening started with a standard political rally organised by Aigars Stokenbergs of the main opposition party, Sabiedriba Citai Politikai (SCP) to gather support to get the President to dismiss the Saeima (Paliament). Over 10,000 people turned up from all over the country to brave the sub zero temperatures and today a petition is on the Internet with double that number signed up already.
After the rally the nearest group to the Saeima headed off to protest pecefully in front of the building. The police had made no attempt to block off the road at all so the crowd of 400 or so just walked down there easily. There were no civil police around to stop them. The military police who guard the government buildings realised they were in deep trouble and cut this crowd off from the larger mass with a land rover barricade.
The mainly middle class crowd who got through were focused on their political aim of removing Prime Minister Godmanis. They were noisy and excited throwing eggs, oranges and empty drink cans and bottles at the building. This progressed to the odd firework and brick or two. Generally they were a model of restraint considering the dire financial situation of the country. If this had been all that happened it would have been worth only mild comment.
On the other side of the barricade the action started much the same. There were several groups of youths at the front and they were being aggressive, trying to overturn one of the land rovers and throwing empty beer cans. Most of this was watched by several hundred families and children who joined in by throwing the odd egg or two. But a more sinister element appeared and a team of very hyped up young men in their 20s (almost like on drugs) started with more aggressive action throwing bricks, shouting loudly and making very provocative gestures. One of them walked back out of the crowd 50m to smash the windows of an unatended police van totally innoring ignoring the private cars around it. These men were controlled, if this is the word, by a very well dressed man around 30 watching from the side. None of the youngsters realised they were being manipulated so they just followed these more aggressive leaders and became more daring and aggressive themselves, eventually starting to pull bits off the land rovers. But now spurred on by a cheering crowd the youths started to throw bottles at the nearby windows breaking them (to loud cheers) and then the odd bottle close to the military police as well.
I have to say that I was deeply proud of the young military police NCOs who stood tall and defiant throughout. They kept their heads even when there was a short spell of violence and the lone civil policeman on the barricades was forced to throw a smoke grenade and fire rubber bullets.
The amazing thing at this point was that there were no police evident on our side of the barriers at all. After the rubber bullet incident one of the SCP organisers went looking for the police. Less than 100m away and round the corner there were 6 of them chatting. On being confronted they said "we have no equipment and no leaders here so we cant do anything". They then went back to chatting.
After about an hour of this and some politically targeted window breaking in side streets, the public order police appeared in riot gear and pushed the 100 or so aggressive youngsters back into the square. Now the really bizarre part of this riot took place. The police were making small charges into the crowd of youths who ran away each time and then came back to taunt them. About 2-300 people stood back and watched the action like they were at an ice hockey game. But at the same time and right next to the action, the fencing around the square was being dismantled, the band stand and sound equipment was being taken down, and - wait for it - the lady cleaners in their yellow and orange fluorescent jackets were sweeping up the square in and around the riot as it was happening. Only in Latvia are cleaners treated with so much respect!
Then to add to the nonsense, two blue light flashing police vans drove through the crowd, going where we know not, and the crowd parted in good nature, and let them through. Minutes later, the municipal sweeping van also parted the crowd doing a couple of back and forth runs across the square. Unarmed and equipped municipal police then came to block off the square and the riot police eventually chased about 50 youths, with few aggressive but still fairly gentlemanly thumpings, out of the exit roads and into the old town. The chase continued sporadically for the rest of the evening.
As I walked through the square on my way home just before midnight, the cleaners were still there and amazingly the bandstand equipment, now packed up, was waiting there neatly for the lorry to take it away.
At the main entrance to the old town I saw two lines of riot police waiting, but clearly relaxed and virtually off duty. Another line just 40m away was facing the freedom monument (defending McDonalds I thought) against 20-30 youngsters still bent on their sport of police baiting. The general public just walked through the whole thing as though it was a normal evening. I walked past lots of municipal police and standing groups of youngsters, both Russian and Latvian speakers and most of them clearly very very poor. Bad teeth were visible in many mouths.
This morning on the way into the office I walked past the key area of damage. There was virtually nothing beyond a dozen or so large broken windows. The main Parex Bank office had been attacked and damaged. The two liquor stores opposite it and the Tax office over the road had had their main windows smashed. I saw one car with a broken window. But this damage was all too politically neat for a riot. The windows were all smashed exactly in the middle, The nearby restaurant, expensive women's dress shop, other major banks and expensive cars, including those within 20m of the barricade were all left totally untouched. Apparently over 100 youths were arrested and several people were hurt, at least one badly. A miltary spokesman said that outside the Saeima the trouble was caused by Russian speakers. But from where I was standing, the three trouble making groups of youths including those trying to make a serious riot were all Latvian speakers so I hesitate to draw a nationalist conclusion from this.
So what conclusions have I drawn from it all? Firstly the strength of opinion against this government from the general public is high and that came across clearly from the diversity of people at the rally and the petition. Secondly there are a lot of disaffected people, especially youngsters, of both Latvian and Russian background who showed their unhappiness last night. We were lucky, the Latvian character stopped them behaving really badly and they demonstrated more to vent their own frustrations than against the country in general. This was no Paris. We may not be so lucky with them again though. The country has been warned.
The police come out of this with both roses and brickbats. The normal Riga police mainly operated with restraint and common sense and did much to keep the general situation from getting worse. Many of them however were clearly out of their depth with the whole thing, and the mainly academic police training needs a serious rethink. The public order police could have been much harder with those they faced and there are some very lucky young men today. But they almost certainly made the evening worse by being aggressive too late rather than being visible and active before the rioting youngsters became confident. The Interior Minister also needs to go. The Saeima should have been properly protected and cordoned off even before the rally and the police were just not ready for trouble even though the Internet had been full of warnings for days. Overall the police management was found to be completely out of its depth. A major shake up is required.
But what is the worst thing is that there is a politically inspired minority in the country who were ready and willing to deliberately risk peoples lives by inciting riot just to further their own political aims. They failed because they tried to be too clever and their nasty actions were made to stand out by the sheer goodness of the general population.
So God bless Latvia - and God bless our wonderful little cleaning ladies too - they should give the country great hope.
The evening started with a standard political rally organised by Aigars Stokenbergs of the main opposition party, Sabiedriba Citai Politikai (SCP) to gather support to get the President to dismiss the Saeima (Paliament). Over 10,000 people turned up from all over the country to brave the sub zero temperatures and today a petition is on the Internet with double that number signed up already.
After the rally the nearest group to the Saeima headed off to protest pecefully in front of the building. The police had made no attempt to block off the road at all so the crowd of 400 or so just walked down there easily. There were no civil police around to stop them. The military police who guard the government buildings realised they were in deep trouble and cut this crowd off from the larger mass with a land rover barricade.
The mainly middle class crowd who got through were focused on their political aim of removing Prime Minister Godmanis. They were noisy and excited throwing eggs, oranges and empty drink cans and bottles at the building. This progressed to the odd firework and brick or two. Generally they were a model of restraint considering the dire financial situation of the country. If this had been all that happened it would have been worth only mild comment.
On the other side of the barricade the action started much the same. There were several groups of youths at the front and they were being aggressive, trying to overturn one of the land rovers and throwing empty beer cans. Most of this was watched by several hundred families and children who joined in by throwing the odd egg or two. But a more sinister element appeared and a team of very hyped up young men in their 20s (almost like on drugs) started with more aggressive action throwing bricks, shouting loudly and making very provocative gestures. One of them walked back out of the crowd 50m to smash the windows of an unatended police van totally innoring ignoring the private cars around it. These men were controlled, if this is the word, by a very well dressed man around 30 watching from the side. None of the youngsters realised they were being manipulated so they just followed these more aggressive leaders and became more daring and aggressive themselves, eventually starting to pull bits off the land rovers. But now spurred on by a cheering crowd the youths started to throw bottles at the nearby windows breaking them (to loud cheers) and then the odd bottle close to the military police as well.
I have to say that I was deeply proud of the young military police NCOs who stood tall and defiant throughout. They kept their heads even when there was a short spell of violence and the lone civil policeman on the barricades was forced to throw a smoke grenade and fire rubber bullets.
The amazing thing at this point was that there were no police evident on our side of the barriers at all. After the rubber bullet incident one of the SCP organisers went looking for the police. Less than 100m away and round the corner there were 6 of them chatting. On being confronted they said "we have no equipment and no leaders here so we cant do anything". They then went back to chatting.
After about an hour of this and some politically targeted window breaking in side streets, the public order police appeared in riot gear and pushed the 100 or so aggressive youngsters back into the square. Now the really bizarre part of this riot took place. The police were making small charges into the crowd of youths who ran away each time and then came back to taunt them. About 2-300 people stood back and watched the action like they were at an ice hockey game. But at the same time and right next to the action, the fencing around the square was being dismantled, the band stand and sound equipment was being taken down, and - wait for it - the lady cleaners in their yellow and orange fluorescent jackets were sweeping up the square in and around the riot as it was happening. Only in Latvia are cleaners treated with so much respect!
Then to add to the nonsense, two blue light flashing police vans drove through the crowd, going where we know not, and the crowd parted in good nature, and let them through. Minutes later, the municipal sweeping van also parted the crowd doing a couple of back and forth runs across the square. Unarmed and equipped municipal police then came to block off the square and the riot police eventually chased about 50 youths, with few aggressive but still fairly gentlemanly thumpings, out of the exit roads and into the old town. The chase continued sporadically for the rest of the evening.
As I walked through the square on my way home just before midnight, the cleaners were still there and amazingly the bandstand equipment, now packed up, was waiting there neatly for the lorry to take it away.
At the main entrance to the old town I saw two lines of riot police waiting, but clearly relaxed and virtually off duty. Another line just 40m away was facing the freedom monument (defending McDonalds I thought) against 20-30 youngsters still bent on their sport of police baiting. The general public just walked through the whole thing as though it was a normal evening. I walked past lots of municipal police and standing groups of youngsters, both Russian and Latvian speakers and most of them clearly very very poor. Bad teeth were visible in many mouths.
This morning on the way into the office I walked past the key area of damage. There was virtually nothing beyond a dozen or so large broken windows. The main Parex Bank office had been attacked and damaged. The two liquor stores opposite it and the Tax office over the road had had their main windows smashed. I saw one car with a broken window. But this damage was all too politically neat for a riot. The windows were all smashed exactly in the middle, The nearby restaurant, expensive women's dress shop, other major banks and expensive cars, including those within 20m of the barricade were all left totally untouched. Apparently over 100 youths were arrested and several people were hurt, at least one badly. A miltary spokesman said that outside the Saeima the trouble was caused by Russian speakers. But from where I was standing, the three trouble making groups of youths including those trying to make a serious riot were all Latvian speakers so I hesitate to draw a nationalist conclusion from this.
So what conclusions have I drawn from it all? Firstly the strength of opinion against this government from the general public is high and that came across clearly from the diversity of people at the rally and the petition. Secondly there are a lot of disaffected people, especially youngsters, of both Latvian and Russian background who showed their unhappiness last night. We were lucky, the Latvian character stopped them behaving really badly and they demonstrated more to vent their own frustrations than against the country in general. This was no Paris. We may not be so lucky with them again though. The country has been warned.
The police come out of this with both roses and brickbats. The normal Riga police mainly operated with restraint and common sense and did much to keep the general situation from getting worse. Many of them however were clearly out of their depth with the whole thing, and the mainly academic police training needs a serious rethink. The public order police could have been much harder with those they faced and there are some very lucky young men today. But they almost certainly made the evening worse by being aggressive too late rather than being visible and active before the rioting youngsters became confident. The Interior Minister also needs to go. The Saeima should have been properly protected and cordoned off even before the rally and the police were just not ready for trouble even though the Internet had been full of warnings for days. Overall the police management was found to be completely out of its depth. A major shake up is required.
But what is the worst thing is that there is a politically inspired minority in the country who were ready and willing to deliberately risk peoples lives by inciting riot just to further their own political aims. They failed because they tried to be too clever and their nasty actions were made to stand out by the sheer goodness of the general population.
So God bless Latvia - and God bless our wonderful little cleaning ladies too - they should give the country great hope.
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